近日有色金属期货价格在铝的领跌下，铜、锌、镍等也出现重挫，当投资者还在犹豫是否应改变多头思维时，国内沪铜期价已暴跌2000多点。所谓战略性抛空的投资者每次盼着“狼来了”，但每次都被无情的上涨所 伤。不过笔者认为，这次狼真的来了。
商品属性 基本面实质性改变
供给方面，近几年铜价高企致使全球矿山产量大幅增长，2005年预计增幅达8.0%，铜精矿供应充足并已过剩，直接反映是TC/RC大幅上升，中国现已超过180美元/18分，冶炼商生产已跟不上铜精矿产量的增长。而精矿产量的大幅度上升，必导致精铜产量大幅提高。需求方面，ICSG报告称，今年头两个月全球铜供应过剩2.4万吨，而去年同期尚缺23.6万吨。CRU更是预测05年全球过剩量将达5.2万吨。表明体现商品属性的供求关系正在实质性改变，这是牛熊转变的关键因素。
此外，从过去30多年来铜价与库存关系上可以看出，二者基本上呈负相关性，但时间上并不完全同步，库存低点并未对应铜价高点，在1989年的大牛市中，铜价从高点下跌时库存还在持续下降，铜价于1989年1月达到高点而库存在1990年7月才减少至最低。当前库存仍处于较低水平，时间上也并不对应铜继续高企，而供求关系的实质性改变，必然促使铜完成牛熊转换。
金融属性 保值作用不再
与农产品生产的季节性及储藏时间的有限性相比，金属通常作为投资组合的一部分，其保值作用比较明显，特别是全球性的通货膨胀及货币大幅贬值期间更加显著。自2001年大宗商品价格总体转为牛市及美元持续贬值以来，金属，特别是铜作为银行、基金等大机构当作保值手段所囤积持有。本轮铜大牛市与以往不同之处在于，迄今并未发生全球性通货膨胀，一直提供支持的美元走弱趋势也告一段落。这使得铜的保值作用弱化，美元作为一种与商品进行对冲的交易机制，已不存在任何趋势性理由，从而必然对铜价构成实质性压力。
博弈性 基金高位撤离
作为重要投机力量的基金与套期保值力量的商业户之间的博弈，经常导致行情发生方向性运动。一般而言，基金主导价格的趋势性运动，而通过对基金持仓分析可窥探到其操作手法，研究表明，基金在价格低位，多翻空时多采取猛烈方式，短时间就可完成，如2001年11月初，减产导致的铜价“V”型反转，基金从净空2.6万手翻至净多仅用两周时间，2002年10月初也仅用不到两周时间就完成了多空转换；而在高位时，基金一般通过时间来完成多翻空，强行翻空只会导致价格暴跌而无法完成多空转换，2004年CBOT大豆市场上，基金在1000点以上平多翻空，直到价格跌至600多才达到净空状态；铜市也如此，2004年10月中旬、12月初、2005年初基金在高位的每次仓位调整都导致价格暴跌。从博弈论角度解释，在低位时，基金翻多对应的是卖出套期保值者，而卖出套保者在成本确定的情况下，通过卖出锁定利润以我为主，较少关注价格趋势，一般只要达到目标位即进场与基金多头形成对手；而价格在高位时，基金多翻空必须找到贸易商和消费商作为对手才能完成多空转换，当价格处于高位时，消费商随用随买，买涨不买跌心理导致基金很难短期完成多翻空转换，强行翻空只会导致价格暴跌，而基金用时间换空间的方式能很好完成多空转换。
本轮铜牛市中，基金经过几次强行翻仓的失败，逐步改变策略，利用时间换空间，不断通过高位挤空来促使商业买盘进场接盘，在3月初基金净多持仓达到3.6万手以后，一直维持价格高位，不断挤兑空头，特别是中国大量买盘入市后，通过近两个月的时间，顺利完成仓位调整，截至上周仅剩1.6万手，在多头基本全线撤离后，宏观基金、CTA基本翻空。而随着与美元贬值形成的对冲功能的弱化，指数基金也必然撤离。而商业性持仓转为净多成为基金必然做空的基础，也是牛熊转换、顶部逐步形成的条件，基金与商业的博弈结果基金翻空后，推动行情转入漫漫熊市。
中国因素逐渐弱化
本轮大牛市的一个特殊背景就是中国经济强劲增长，引发对铜的需求猛增，中国因素在铜价创出历史最高水平的过程里起到关键作用。但自2004年上半年以来，中国政府采取多种措施进行宏观调控，抑制经济的过热势头。如果近期房地产等行业调控措施效果不明显，接踵而来的必然是加息、升值等更为严厉的措施，不排除经济硬着陆的可能。中国经济增速的放缓，对铜需求必然下降，而作为全球铜消费增量最大贡献国，一旦需求减少，必然进一步缓和铜的供应紧张局面，最终结束本轮牛市，完成牛熊转换。#p#分页标题#e#
(中证网/喻猛国)
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0.561921s
