◆巴曙松 （国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长、博士生导师）
如同许多人事前所预期，在美国总统选举中，奥巴马胜了。
奥巴马的当选，已经引发了广泛的评论，例如美国选民希望改变的期望、个人的政治魅力等。然而，在当前的金融动荡环境下，更具有深刻影响的，是巨大的主导性的经济政策倾向和经济思潮的悄然转变；正是前一阶段应对金融风暴以及对次贷危机的反思中，包括美国在内的全球主导性的经济思潮，开始转向对奥巴马有利的“向左走”。那么，奥巴马当选会给中国带来什么呢？
中国和美国分别作为最大的发展中国家和最大的发达国家，在维护全球金融稳定方面具有越来越多的共同战略利益。当前全球经济所出现的调整，可以说是全球经济从剧烈的失衡中重新寻找新的平衡点。在这种动荡的寻找平衡点过程中，中国和美国都深深涉及其中，只有保持良好的战略合作，才能真正从长期内有利于双方的战略利益。
当前，中国经济也处于次贷危机冲击与内部经济周期回落的调整时期，但是从全球范围看，依然保持了良好的增长态势。从短期来看，在中美双方的磨合阶段，中国的外贸部门可能会面临新的挑战。奥巴马所倡导的“公平的国际贸易”，更多带有贸易保护色彩。
在对华贸易关系问题上，奥巴马把中国看作是全球经济的重要参与者，并且认为眼下两国的贸易关系严重失衡。奥巴马认为中国政府必须让人民币汇率市场化，必须增加进口，必须更加严厉打击对美国知识产权的侵犯，并倾向于利用WTO法规和美国国内法律对中国施压。他多次表态，声称将会更加积极地监测中国入世协定的执行情况。2007年8月，奥巴马曾在美国一个论坛上说，“中国是竞争对手，但是它不一定非友即敌。不过，我们必须清楚，他们会为自己的好处与我们顽强谈判，我们也必须开诚布公地告诉他们，我们必须保障美国工人的利益。这就意味着执行贸易协定，也意味我们不能陷入赤字大坑而让中国来解救我们……”
10月29日，奥巴马在给美国全国纺织业组织理事会写的信中承诺，一旦当选，他会通过各种外交渠道对中国施加压力，促使人民币升值，并改变中国的外汇政策，使中国减少出口，增加国内消费。虽然奥巴马的经济顾问古尔斯比解释，奥巴马在竞选过程中采取贸易保护主义立场，更多体现的是其政治策略而不是政策主张。但也体现了美国现有的一些利益团体的政策意图，我们对此应当有充分的预计和政策的充分沟通。
可以预计，经过次贷危机后，在全球范围内，会涌现出较大规模的国有化金融机构和企业，金融机构的监管会大大强化；个人和企业获得资金的能力或渠道都会受到一定的限制；货币宽松程度可能会有比较大的变化；企业会选择更加稳健的投资方式。
顺应这个趋势，中国可以与美国一道，共同提出并推动应对次贷危机的方案，例如，在参与应对全球次贷危机中积极推进人民币的国际化；以赢得更大国际金融话语权为原则，在现有的国际金融格局下适当参与全球金融救援行动；在购买美元及其相关金融资产时，可以要求更高的权利保证和更为优惠的价格；可以利用当前全球关注国际金融监管的有利氛围，呼吁发起设立对次按证券的清算机构，呼吁拟定对场外衍生市场以及对冲基金的监管国际准则。
中国作为最大的外汇储备持有国，在欧美等通过大幅货币发行来应对次贷危机时面临较大的汇率风险，而主要储备货币的过度发行也是导致次贷危机的关键原因之一。因此，中国可以呼吁建立主要储备货币汇率的稳定机制和货币发行限制机制，防止这些储备货币国家利用其储备货币地位滥发货币。
来源： 每日经济新闻 发布时间： 2008年11月06日 03:41 作者： 巴曙松 #p#分页标题#e#
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0.243011s
